The June Jobs report is once again being praised by the Lying Press in the face of an economic “slowdown” that everyone knows would be called a recession if the GOP were in power.
According to the widely cited Survey of Employers, the economy added back 372,000 jobs in June. Average hourly earnings rose 5.1% year-over-year [Y-O-Y], a level that in most years would translate to large real income gains. Unfortunately, with the latest CPI inflation running at 9.1%, Y-O-Y, average incomes are still falling behind in real, inflation-adjusted, dollars.
The result: the extraordinary 2017-2020 Trump surge in real incomes, attributable at least in part to his curtailment of immigration through executive action and low inflation, has dramatically busted under Biden, attributable at least in part to his unleashing immigration and monetary laxness.
Underlying this wild gyration is the fact that, under Trump, the immigrant workforce population actually began falling significantly—before bouncing back under Biden.
In contrast to the Trump trend, in June 2022, despite 1.056 million immigrants reported as unemployed, the foreign-born working-age population expanded by more than 2 million Y-O-Y for the second consecutive month.
Some recession-deniers point to the continuing job growth reported in June. But employment is typically a lagging indicator of economic conditions. And the “other” employment survey, of Households rather than Employers, is already flashing red. The Household Survey showed total employment declining by 315,000 in June..